- [Stan] Coming up on "IMPACT."

The campaign season is underway, and in Montana's eastern congressional district, a crowded field is running to replace Matt Rosendale.

- You don't need to appeal to half the Republican voters in the 2nd District.

You really need 30%.

- [Stan] Stick around for expert analysis of that race and the one for US Senate.

Plus, the primary serves as a powerful predictor of who Montanans send to serve in the state legislature.

And in one legislative district outside Bozeman, three conservative candidates face off in a rare three-way Republican primary.

- [Jennifer] I consider myself to be a conservative Republican.

- [Scott] I'd like to think that I have a certain level of common sense.

- [Caleb] I'm a pro-liberty guy, okay?

- [Stan] Testing which definition of conservative resonates most with voters.

That's coming up on "IMPACT."

- [Announcer] Production of "IMPACT" is made possible with support from the Otto Bremer Trust, investing in people, places, and opportunities in our region, online at ottobremer.org, the Greater Montana Foundation, encouraging communication on issues, trends, and values of importance to Montanans, and viewers like you, who are friends of Montana PBS.

Thank you.

- Welcome to "IMPACT" from Montana PBS.

I'm Stan Parker.

In this edition, we turn our attention to Montana's primary election, which takes place June 4th.

To begin our coverage, Montana PBS's Joe Lesar spoke with political analyst Lee Banville about the national races at the top of Montana's ticket, starting with the crowded Republican field in the 2nd Congressional District.

- North of Miles City.

- With Matt Rosendale not seeking reelection, eight Republicans and four Democrats are vying to fill his seat in the US House of Representatives.

In the safely conservative eastern 2nd District, whoever emerges from the crowded Republican field stands a strong chance of heading to Washington this fall.

It's shaping up to be Montana's most competitive primary, and it's also the largest field in a congressional primary since the Republican race for the 2nd District in 1922.

This race could be won with, you know, as little as I think 13% of the vote, you know, if it shakes out that way.

- Right.

- You know, I would love to start with just kind of your overall thoughts on this crazy race that has already seen a lot of action, and here we are a few months before the election.

- So I'm someone who, I mean, obviously I watch politics.

I mean, I kind of am fascinated by it, and like, the 2nd District Republican primary is like, I don't know, it's like a gift that just keeps on giving 'cause it's so complicated and messy.

I mean, it is a bunch of statewide known candidates, a bunch of legislators with pretty well-known sort of track records themselves, and so the volatility of it is crazy, right?

Like, you have no idea what's gonna resonate with the primary voters in the 2nd District and what's gonna get people to turn out and vote in June.

I mean, you have a ton of people with lots of name recognition, and so you really don't have the normal dynamic that you have in a race.

So you have this sort of, you know, series of things that really leave people who are supposed to sound smart about this stuff completely like, "I have no idea what's gonna happen in the Republican primary."

- So, Lee, let's talk about some of the more well-known candidates in this race, and we'll start with Denny Rehberg, who's making a return to politics in Montana.

Where do you think a candidate like Rehberg fits in with the Montana GOP now?

- Well, it's interesting.

I mean, his public...

So if you look at what he did when he was in Congress for 12 years, it's very much old-school Republican, right, you know, very kind of Reagan-esque but also very like, you know, he was famous for being able to bring in a lot of federal spending into Montana.

And he was proud of that.

And now we say that that would be, you know, pork barrel politics, and you know, actually Matt Rosendale has made fighting that a central part of who he was when he was in Congress.

He's definitely running as a conservative, but it's just interesting because the party itself has become different in the last decade.

And so it will be interesting to see how Rehberg adjusts to it and how voters respond to that adjustment.

Do they see him as like somebody who can get stuff done and somebody who can be, you know, effective in Washington?

Or do they see him as like a remnant of the Republican Party that, like, helped make the swamp?

- And so Lee, another candidate, State Auditor Troy Downing, he's one of the three candidates who've held statewide office here in Montana.

What can you tell us about his campaign?

- So Troy Downing, state auditor, he's got kind of an interesting profile to be able to put out there for voters.

He's really kind of got an interesting mix of, you know, some pretty traditional conservative sort of bona fides, for lack of a better term, but also like he's done things in the state auditor's office that he can point to and be like, "I did this to improve healthcare access," or, "I did this to hold companies accountable when they didn't do what they said they were gonna do."

And so, you know, he did win a statewide office, and he won it handily.

He really has historically been able to make a pretty consistent argument about his conservative credentials.

- [Joe] According to numbers from the Federal Election Commission, Downing leads all current candidates with just over $950,000 raised so far.

The last candidate to have held statewide office is Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen.

Arntzen's painted herself as a hard-line conservative and is endorsed by the chairman of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, Bob Good of Virginia.

She's faced criticism over her rhetoric and job performance during her time at the OPI, something she's attempting to use to her advantage on the campaign trail.

- Much of her messaging fascinatingly has come from criticism of her as the superintendent, where they say that she hasn't done certain things.

She's faced a lot of like, actually bipartisan criticism, but she has sort of used that to make it a, she is standing up against, you know, woke-ism.

She likes to say that she's standing up against the radical LGBTQ agenda, but that has resonated sometimes with voters.

And so, you know, she does have... She is definitely portraying herself as a fighter, somebody who's gonna fight not just Democrats, but also her own party when she believes that she is in the right.

I think what's interesting is if it helps on step one, right, if it gets her more primary voters, there's no guarantee it will help in the general election, right?

I don't think it would help her to have some of the criticism that has been leveled by members of both parties of the job she's done sort of bouncing around.

But what we don't know yet is like, you know, are Republican primary voters gonna feel the same way and actually never send her to the general.

- [Joe] On the flip side of Arntzen's far-right conservatism is a candidate like Joel Krautter.

In his one term as a state congressman, Krautter aligned with the Conservative Solutions Caucus, a group of more moderate Republicans, and grew a reputation as a bipartisan.

That reputation cost him in the 2020 primary, where he lost to a more conservative challenger.

Krautter picked up a primary endorsement from the Montana Federation of Public Employees, the state's largest union.

- You know, he's trying to kind of almost position himself a little bit like a John Tester of the right.

He probably made his biggest name for himself in helping support the expansion of Medicaid, which, you know, was, on the one hand, unpopular among many Republicans but on the other hand helped ensure almost 10% of the state at one point.

And so, you know, the Solutions Caucus became sort of a lightning rod once Republicans grew in their majority.

But I think that what's interesting is they did get a lot of stuff done.

He can make the argument that "I'm kind of above party, but I am conservative, and I'm gonna be focused on these smaller communities that are not getting heard in Washington."

It's not a bad argument in concept, but I think that same argument could be made by Denny Rehberg with a much bigger name recognition.

So, like, you know, it's how does he differentiate himself and sort of say, "I'm a new generation of conservative who still wants to get things done."

- [Joe] Rounding out the field are President pro tempore of the Montana Senate, Ken Bogner, rancher and former Congressman Ric Holden, the former director of Drug Enforcement Agency operations for Montana, Stacey Zinn, and Kyle Austin, a Billings pharmacist, and the only current candidate that ran in 2022.

Former state senator Ed Walker's name will appear on the ballot, although he suspended his campaign in early April.

With so many Republicans to choose from, Banville says it's hard to know which issues will resonate with enough voters to secure a victory in the primary.

- It's really like it's anybody's race right now 'cause they all have strengths, and all of them have some weaknesses.

It's such a crowded field that, really, how do you carve out... You know, you don't need to appeal to half the Republican voters in the 2nd District.

You really need 30%, and you're probably gonna win.

And that creates a very interesting political sort of equation here, which is, do you double down on one issue and say, "I'm focused on abortion," or, "I'm focused on gun rights," or, "I'm focused on whatever."

Or do you try to sort of like cast a wider net and try to attract different voters?

You know, I think each of those campaigns are gonna have to make that decision, and it will really affect what you'll see in the next month or so as the primary gets closer.

- [Joe] Now moving to the Democratic side of the ticket, Kevin Ham is the CEO of a tech support company based in Helena and the president of Montana's statewide LGBTQ+ pride parade.

Ming Cabrera is a retired pharmaceutical sales rep and former president of the Yellowstone County Democrats.

Steve Held is a rancher outside of Broadus.

Held is the only candidate, Republican or Democrat, to receive the endorsement of the Montana Rural Voters Committee for the eastern district race.

And lastly, John Driscoll, a former Democratic Montana Speaker of the House and Public Service Commissioner.

In 2020, Driscoll ran in the Republican primary for US Senate.

In Montana's western 1st Congressional District, Incumbent Ryan Zinke is running against Mary Todd, a retired pastor who finished third of five in 2022's congressional primary.

Democrat Monica Tranel, who lost to Zinke in the 2022 general election by 3%, is running unopposed.

- When I go home to Montana.

- [Joe] Moving now to the US Senate, where a November showdown is shaping up between three-term Democrat John Tester and the heavy Republican favorite Tim Sheehy.

The race is one of the most watched in the country this year.

Republicans see flipping the seat as critical to regaining control of the chamber.

Tester and Sheehy each face primary challengers.

On the Democratic side is first-time political candidate Michael Hummert.

Key themes of Hummert's campaign material are excessive federal spending, the border, and term and age limits for federal legislators.

In the Republican primary are former Montana Secretary of State and former Public Service Commission Chairman Brad Johnson and Charles Walking Child, who ran in the 2nd Congressional District primary in 2022.

- Fortunately, some folks- - [Joe] They face a tall task in Sheehy, who's endorsed by Montana's top Republicans and former President Donald Trump.

- They don't talk about the issues because- - [Joe] He's well on the way to the nomination, but his quick rise from political no-name to front-runner ruffled feathers in the Montana GOP.

- There is sort of a time-tested way you do this, which is, you know, you run for the state legislature.

You run for a statewide office.

You build sort of credibility on the issues by doing things, right?

And by sort of jumping over all of that and going to, you know, one of the most critical and sort of highest profile races, there are a lot of people who are underneath there that are like, "Well, I've been working..." You know, think of Matt Rosendale.

He's like, "I've been working on this for years.

This should be my turn again, and you're jumping the line," right?

And nobody likes somebody cutting in line.

And so I think there's some of that.

And I think the other thing is, you know, the Republican Party has been going through a lot of like, "We need to make sure that we're all on the same page about a lot of issues."

Whether it's abortion rights, or it's affiliation with former President Trump, there were a series of litmus tests that you have to pass.

And he's not been pressed on a ton of these.

I mean, he certainly doesn't say anything that makes you think that, oh, he's secretly super moderate, but you also just don't know yet, right, 'cause everything he says is what he says, not what he's done.

And so I think there's some skepticism there.

I think the biggest thing is, you know, until you are in the office, and you're voting on things, we don't know what you're really gonna do.

So he is kind of untested in that space, and we're really kind of taking the word of, you know, Steve Daines and Greg Gianforte that he's gonna be the right Republican, not just a Republican, but the right kind of Republican to have that office.

- Choosing the right kind of Republican isn't just the task at hand for Montana's Republican voters when deciding who they want to send to DC.

It's also on their minds when deciding who they want to represent them in the state legislature.

That dynamic is on full display in a rare three-way Republican primary in a House district in southwest Montana.

The three candidates all consider themselves to be conservative Republicans.

While that groups them under the same label, as Breanna McCabe found out, there are degrees of division.

- [Breanna] In the rural outskirts west of Bozeman that are rapidly developing, so is the competition between three conservative Republicans who've all campaigned here before.

- [Caleb] It takes work.

- [Breanna] Representative Caleb Hinkle.

- Running for an election or a reelection is a second job you don't get paid for, and oftentimes you're paying out of pocket.

- [Breanna] Representative Jennifer Carlson.

- When I campaign, I try as much as possible to reach every person living in the district.

- [Scott] By putting up signs, people know you're running.

- [Breanna] And former legislator Scott Sales.

- But on these smaller races, you really don't know what works, so you just try to do as much as you can.

- [Breanna] Each hopes their efforts are enough to secure this district's single seat in Montana's House of Representatives.

- Three-ways are very difficult.

They all are good campaigners because they've won in the past, But they're all three, that I know of, they campaign differently.

- [Breanna] But at first glance, voters might not catch the differences between the varieties of conservative in this race.

- [Jennifer] I consider myself a conservative Republican.

- [Scott] I think it means less than it used to because everybody says they're one.

- [Caleb] I'm a pro-liberty guy.

- They don't see each other as the most conservative choice.

They're each arguing that they better represent the population down there.

- [Breanna] All three have swayed residents in this slice of Belgrade before, a swath where Republicans predictably prevail.

- I would suggest that this district that I live in is not winnable by a Democrat.

It's like 70% Republican.

- [Breanna] But Republican districts are getting fewer in a growing Gallatin County.

- It's changed a lot.

The county was much more Republican in 20 years ago than it is today.

A lot of this population growth has been people that are more left of center.

- [Breanna] Montana's population changes inform the commission that redraws Montana's voting districts every decade.

And the most recent redistricting left two sitting legislators from formerly neighboring districts eyeing the same territory in this election, House District 68.

- Well, it's one of two Republican House seats left, solid Republican House seats, left in Gallatin County.

- [Breanna] Hinkle's only other option to run in a Republican-leaning district would've meant challenging his older brother, Representative Jedediah Hinkle, in District 67.

- You want me to primary him?

- [Breanna] A candidate can run in any district in the county where they live, with one caveat.

If the district crosses county lines, a candidate can only run in that district if they live there.

So when the new maps moved Carlson's current district, 69, mostly into Madison County, she had to choose a new district.

- I've maintained all along that no matter what happened to redistricting, I would continue to run where I live.

- [Breanna] Hinkle also lives in the district.

Scott Sales does not, but he's not required to.

- I've had people say, you know, "Why are you doing this?

This isn't your district," yada, yada, yada.

It was my district at one time.

It could be again, but quite frankly, it's not my district, and it's not their district.

It's the people's district.

- I'm not saying that he isn't eligible to run here because he is absolutely eligible to run here, but he's not from here, and I don't want a representative who doesn't represent me.

- [Breanna] Sales did represent residents in that area.

- Hard rock minerals- - Most recently as their senator, terming out in 2019 after serving in both chambers since the early 2000s.

- I've reused my signs many, many, many, many times now, so I just keep recycling 'em.

It's good for the environment.

(laughs) - He's termed out of both chambers, ran for secretary of state, ran for county commissioner, been the lottery director, and it's honestly an exploit in the term limits law.

- [Breanna] Sales is constitutionally eligible to run again, but after four years away, his decision to try to return to the legislature by challenging two fellow conservatives caught some off guard.

- I think they were just surprised that I would jump into something that already had two contested people running.

I'm like, "Well, let's give it a third choice.

See what the people want."

- Usually if there's a primary, it's a person from two different groups, and this time it's really not.

- [Barry] They're very similar votes, but they're different.

- All those in favor of the motion vote aye, all opposed, no.

- [Breanna] Those contrasts come to light at the capitol.

- [Representative] Has every member voted?

- [Barry] You know, one is very constitutional.

- That is all, madame chair.

- One is about Department of Health and Human Services.

And then you got Scott.

All three of their votes are fairly conservative.

- Those in favor the motion vote aye.

- [Breanna] We've heard of a house divided, but with Republicans holding 68 of the 100 seats last session, the super majority party's own divisions are often where the votes split.

- The Democrats are pretty much insignificant at this point.

It's between Republicans.

When you have as large a majorities as the Republicans have at this point, they need to come to an agreement.

- I mean, even a common observer of the legislature can see Democrats typically vote as a group.

- [Representative] Is there a vote?

- [Breanna] It's a minority party strategy that can work effectively.

(bell chimes) - 86 representatives have voted aye.

- Democrats are like an ant colony.

They all work for the colony, and Republicans, it's like herding cats, but those cats happen to be in factions generally.

- When you're in the majority, and you're gonna be part of governing, often those individual differences become very debated.

- In the Republican Party, we have very conservative legislators.

We have very fiscally conservative legislators, very socially conservative legislators.

We have what I would think of as more moderate Republicans.

- [Breanna] That latter group prefers to be called the Solutions Caucus.

- [Llew] Are you ready?

- [Breanna] Most Republicans either belong to that caucus or the Freedom Caucus, an effort that the national Freedom Caucus initiated in Montana during the 2023 session through its member, Representative Matt Rosendale.

- I'm very, very proud that they were able to get this group organized.

- And I was one of 16 that actually made it into that founding group of the Montana Freedom Caucus.

And I consider that to be a great honor.

- [Breanna] Hinkle serves as secretary of the group.

- Think about this, though.

- [Breanna] Fellow founding member Senator Barry Usher of Billings says the Freedom Caucus requires an 80% consensus on every vote.

- I mean, we have a threshold that we have to meet and you know, just like any other organization.

You know, most places it's 51%.

So we put ourselves at higher than that because we wanna make sure that we're all on board.

- Every day Tuesday through Friday is filled.

(attendees chattering) - I don't wanna put myself in a box where people put expectations on me that are not something that I said I would do.

- But I wouldn't join the Freedom Caucus either.

I think it pigeonholes you into a position where then you can't... As dirty a system as our political system is, you need the ability to be able to work with a multitude of different people.

I learned that as president of the Senate, speaker of the House.

You only have one vote.

- House Bill number 749 I bring for your consideration.

- [Breanna] Solutions Caucus senior member Llew Jones says over time he learned there's power in numbers.

- Alone, you're prey.

No one cares what you think if you're alone, that your pathway to have your voice heard and the voice of others heard is to be part of a block, a block that can influence the outcome.

- I encourage everybody to vote yes on this legislation.

- [Breanna] In recent sessions, the Solutions Caucus voted with Democrats to pass Medicaid expansion, infrastructure funding, and other bills that earned it that moderate reputation.

But Jones says labels can be destructive.

- Moderate person, conservative, it's often a creation of those folks that wish to target someone.

I guess if we're moderate, then they're extreme, but they don't like that term either.

- [Breanna] Still, labels get spewed around during campaign season, especially when most of Montana's contested Republican primaries are between members that align with either the Solutions Caucus or the Freedom Caucus.

In fact, in North Central Montana, Jones finds himself in one of those primaries in the district where he's owned a business and represented in both chambers for an uninterrupted two decades.

Political newcomer James Coombs, who owns a new thrift store just across Main Street, says he answered the call to run.

- I got really frustrated.

I had a couple people approach me and ask me to throw my hat in the race, and I told 'em, "Let me think about it."

And I thought about it, prayed about it, and felt like the Lord called me to do it, so I said I'd do it.

- [Breanna] Coombs identifies with the ideals of the Freedom Caucus and says if elected, he'd like to join it.

- I'm more aligned conservative.

So it seems like talking to a lot of the conservatives in the party, there's people that, you know, state that they're Republicans, and, you know, they're conservative stuff, but if you look at the record, they're not.

- I'm sure there's a new guy in town.

Good for him.

And what's his argument he's gonna make?

He's gonna have to argue I'm not conservative enough.

- [Breanna] Catchphrases can play a role in the success of campaigns, especially for local legislative races, where voters who don't do their research may have little else to go on.

- It's amazing how people just are uninformed, and they don't get involved and don't look up and do the research, and then they just vote for whatever name they've seen the most.

- [Breanna] So along with setting up signs across House District 68, the candidates will campaign on connections.

- I feel good about it because I know a lot of people in the district, and I've called quite a few of them.

And they're still supporting me, so we'll see.

- I live in an area that's very civic-minded, and they know who I am, and I don't see any reason that they're gonna not vote for me.

- What does it all come down to?

Hard work and just campaigning, talking to voters.

I've won it twice before, and I'll win it again.

- [Breanna] While all three share confidence, only one will advance as the conservative of choice on June 4th.

- It'll be interesting to see how that one shakes out.

- The best technique's gonna win.

- Republicans expect whoever wins this primary will earn the House seat come November since around 2/3 of the voters in this newly redrawn district voted Republican four years ago.

That's it for this edition of "IMPACT."

Next time, we'll continue our primary coverage with a look at how voters choose which primary to vote in, an easy choice for many, a dilemma for others.

And Glacier National Park is revising its ticket system.

in order to enter the park.

We'll explore the pros and cons of the changes.

That's next time on "IMPACT."

(pensive music) (pensive music continues) (pensive music continues) - [Announcer] Production of "IMPACT" is made possible with support from the Otto Bremer Trust, investing in people, places, and opportunities in our region, online at ottobremer.org, the Greater Montana Foundation, encouraging communication on issues, trends, and values of importance to Montanans, and viewers like you, who are friends of Montana PBS.

Thank you.

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