GEOFF BENNETT: President Trump has temporarily suspended new tariffs on most goods coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada, just two days after he set them into motion.

The delay gives both countries a one-month reprieve on products traded under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement.

That's the trading agreement that replaced NAFTA under the last Trump administration.

Yesterday, the president granted a similar pause for automakers.

But the beginnings of what seems to be a trade war and the sudden swings in policy are rattling investors and markets.

The three major stock indices in the U.S. fell again today.

To help sort through all of this, we're joined now by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's.

Welcome back to the "NewsHour."

So, the nation's trade policy changed hour by hour today.

What's your reaction to this monthlong delay?

And why do you think President Trump issued it?

MARK ZANDI, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics: Not -- well, the on-again off-again tariffs, Geoff, are a problem for businesses.

They're trying to get their minds around what all this means.

Tariffs on which countries, which products, which companies, how long?

All the uncertainty is just creating all kinds of havoc for businesses in their hiring and investment decisions.

And another month delay, OK, but just one more thing to worry about and consider and to try to take in.

And then what happens a month from now?

I'm sure all businesspeople are asking themselves that question.

Not until we get clarity around the tariffs, exactly how high are they going to be and on which countries, which products, I don't -- I think businesses are going to sit on their hands.

They may not cut back.

They may not fire people.

They may not reduce investment.

That would mean a recession.

But they certainly will be much more cautious.

And that obviously puts the economy at risk.

And that's what the stock market is saying.

The stock market is saying, hey, this is really bad for business.

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, yes, retail sales are down as are manufacturing sales, manufacturing production, real consumer spending, consumer confidence.

What are the risks of this uncertainty to the American public?

MARK ZANDI: Well, clearly, it slows the economy down.

I mean, just to put this into a little bit of context, the economy came into the year performing very well, had an exceptional year in 2024, lots of growth, lots of jobs, unemployment 4 percent, very, very low.

So it looked like it could weather a lot of storms.

But the tariffs is stacking up to be a pretty significant storm.

And if it continues to rage, if we don't see some clarity here pretty soon, within weeks, I think businesses are going to start pulling back.

We are going to start to see job loss.

We potentially could suffer a recession.

Now, in President Trump's first term, we kind of sort of went down this path to a significant degree, and the president was very responsive to what he saw in the stock market.

The stock market sold off.

He was listening to businesspeople, and he ultimately struck a deal with the Chinese.

That's who he imposed the tariffs on, and things cooled off, life went on, and we made our way through.

Hopefully, that's the same thing that happens here relatively soon, very soon, that he does decide to figure out how to strike a deal and cool things off and get back to business, because if he doesn't, if the administration doesn't do this, then we're going to be facing a recession, and that means job loss and lost income and lost wealth.

Nobody wants that.

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, to your point, President Trump appears to be using these tariffs as a leverage point, as a negotiating tactic.

From where you sit, has it been effective?

MARK ZANDI: Not so far.

I mean, he's imposed tariffs on China.

He's imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

The Canadians and Mexicans responded to the first rounds of tariff by saying they're putting more troops on the border to address the fentanyl and immigration issues.

But, so far, that's really small potato.

I don't think that's a very significant policy response.

So, no, I would say so far we haven't gotten much, the president hasn't, as an upshot of these -- the trade war that's ensued.

GEOFF BENNETT: Mexico's president seems to be having more success in her talks with President Trump about all this than does the prime minister of Canada.

Have you seen any differences, major differences, in their strategies that would account for that?

MARK ZANDI: Well, maybe where they are in their tenures as leaders of their countries, right?

Prime Minister Trudeau is at the end of his tenure as prime minister of Canada, may feel he has more latitude here to respond.

He's not as fettered politically.

And President Sheinbaum in Mexico, she's, of course, very new to her post.

She just was elected.

And so she might be -- might feel a little bit more circumspect.

The other thing might be just raw economics, right?

If you look at Canadian imports into the United States, accounts for, what, 16, 17 percent of their GDP, which is a lot, but it's a lot lower than Mexicans' dependence on U.S. -- exports from Mexico to the U.S. That's closer to 25 percent of GDP.

So, that may also be playing a role.

But this is important.

I think leaders around the world who are waiting for tariffs on their own economies are looking at this and seeing what the Canadians are doing, what the Mexicans and are doing, and trying to learn some lessons from that.

GEOFF BENNETT: Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, thanks again for being with us.

MARK ZANDI: Sure thing.