GEOFF BENNETT: Toss-up races in two of the country's bluest states could swing control of the House of Representatives next year.

Political correspondent Lisa Desjardins explores the unusual dynamics playing out in one of those states, New York.

LISA DESJARDINS: The temperatures are dropping in New York's Hudson Valley.

It is campaign season.

And in a parking lot in East Fishkill, a group of Republicans finish their coffee and get ready to fan out.

BONNIE MCHOUL WIEGARD, Dutchess County, New York, Republican Committee: Thank you, everybody, for coming today.

LISA DESJARDINS: Bonnie McHoul Wiegard with the local GOP is organizing this door-to-door effort centered on a bright red area in a deep blue county.

BONNIE MCHOUL WIEGARD: Throughout the state, New York Republicans and conservatives are fighting very hard.

LISA DESJARDINS: How Republicans do here and in other Democratic strongholds will likely determine who controls the House of Representatives.

For Democrats to retake the chamber, they need to gain just four seats nationally.

And in the two biggest blue states, California and New York, there are nine highly competitive House races where Democrats could flip a Republican seat.

That includes this district in the Hudson Valley.

Freshman congressman and Republican Mike Lawler faces a former congressman, Democrat Mondaire Jones.

Lawler is known as a hard worker.

He needs to be.

This district voted for Joe Biden by 10 points.

The area has a history of bipartisanship, but as we heard ourselves, things have become more acute.

BONNIE MCHOUL WIEGARD: I think this is the most important election of our lifetime.

I know every election is important, but I think, this year, it's not even Republicans versus Democrats.

I think it's good versus evil on state... LISA DESJARDINS: You think Democrats are evil?

BONNIE MCHOUL WIEGARD: Not the Democrats, but a lot of philosophies I do not agree with.

MAN: Hello, sir.

How's it going?

LISA DESJARDINS: The district is highly educated and, key for Republicans, home to a large population of former and current law enforcement.

That sharpens the larger debate over criminal justice and crime here, a key attack point for Republicans against Jones.

FMR.

REP. MONDAIRE JONES (D-NY): Of course, we need to end mass incarceration and defund the police.

LISA DESJARDINS: Jones said that once in 2020 after the murder of George Floyd, but has since reversed it, as he told us in an online interview.

FMR.

REP. MONDAIRE JONES: To be very clear, those words were very stupid.

They were used at a very emotional time, not just for me as a Black man, but for the nation.

And I think history has recorded my strong support of law enforcement from my time in Congress, which is what matters.

WOMAN: Republicans in Congress have crippled abortion rights.

LISA DESJARDINS: As the sheer storm of campaign ads shows... MAN: Biden and Mondaire Jones spent money faster than they could print it.

LISA DESJARDINS: ... all of the national issues are swirling here, the economy, abortion, immigration, Israel and parental and LGBTQ rights.

But, overall, negatives dominate, as seen in a recent debate.

FMR.

REP. MONDAIRE JONES: My opponent is part of a Congress that is defined by chaos.

REP. MIKE LAWLER (R-NY): You're the one who chose to leave this district, pack it up to Brooklyn.

LISA DESJARDINS: Lawler confronted his past, a photo of him in blackface in college in a Michael Jackson costume.

Would I do this today?

Absolutely not.

I recognize why people are offended or upset or hurt.

In no way was I ever dressing up to demean or belittle or make fun of Black Americans.

BRUCE CONEENY, Republican Voter: It's a neck-and-neck race, you know?

LISA DESJARDINS: Bruce Coneeny is a Republican and former sheriff's deputy who points to a larger partisan tension, the presidential race.

He will probably vote for Lawler, but Bruce is unhappy with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, thinking of his felonies and of January 6.

BRUCE CONEENY: My God, how many trials and convictions?

And then he's going to release all the people that entered the Capitol.

That's against -- that's wrong.

LISA DESJARDINS: That... WOMAN: Mike Lawler stands with Donald Trump.

LISA DESJARDINS: ... is a key Democratic point of attack at Lawler.

At a nearby diner, I asked him about Trump, a candidate his district most likely will reject, but whose policies he backs.

REP. MIKE LAWLER: Look, he is who he is.

He's 78 years old.

He's not changing who he is at this point.

LISA DESJARDINS: You support him?

REP. MIKE LAWLER: I think I do.

I will be voting for him.

But the choice is between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

TOM STEIN, Democratic Voter: When it comes down to it, he's got to support Trump or he won't have his job.

And I think that's -- I feel it's dangerous.

LISA DESJARDINS: Tom Stein is a Democrat we saw putting up signs.

He says Mondaire Jones and his race are critical to opposing Trump and the impact that he's personally seen, including on a local level.

What's the atmosphere?

TOM STEIN: It's an angrier atmosphere.

And I think that it comes from Donald Trump's rhetoric.

LISA DESJARDINS: The area is a collage of dynamics.

The longtime population here is aging and new groups are moving in, an influx from New York City, some progressive, some conservative, as well as recent generations of immigrants.

That includes a host of Hispanic communities.

Giselle Martinez is the first generation in her family to vote.

And at 22, she ran for and won a seat on the Newburgh City Council.

The city is one of Hudson Valley's urban centers, a Democratic stronghold, where a different Democratic congressman is more clearly out in front.

But the issues here are area-wide, including a rise in migrants, some undocumented, some here illegally and now voting citizens.

The battle for growing groups of Latinos is key to the valley's future and its present, why Giselle and other Latinas are doing their own door-to-door.

And she's noticed something.

GISELLE MARTINEZ, Newburgh, New York, Councilmember: We have seen a shift where specifically Latino men tend to lean more conservative and tend to vote more Republican.

LISA DESJARDINS: To Giselle, Republican policies are harmful and bipartisanship is not the answer.

I told her how Republican organizer Bonnie sees this year as a fight between good and evil.

GISELLE MARTINEZ: I would agree with her, actually.

This is an election between good and evil.

And I say that because, unfortunately, there's been very xenophobic and hateful rhetoric that's been thrown out about specific communities, specifically the immigrant community.

LISA DESJARDINS: The tension here reflects national issues and stakes.

But New York is not a swing state, and the Hudson Valley is really more blue than purple.

Republicans have made this lush landscape competitive.

It's a big test for Democrats in a big year.

Can they win in their own territory?

That will determine the fate of the House.

In Hudson Valley, New York, I'm Lisa Desjardins for the "PBS News Hour."